Karachi: Urea sales are predicted to see a recovery in November 2024, reaching an estimated 649,000 tons, marking a 6% year-over-year increase and hitting an eight-month high. This projection comes despite a cumulative decline in overall urea off-take for the first 11 months of the calendar year 2024, which is expected to hover around 5.58 million tons, reflecting a 7% decrease compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, DAP off-take is anticipated to decline by 14% year-over-year in November.

According to JS Global, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to report 225,000 tons of urea sales in November 2024, representing a 12% year-over-year increase. Similarly, Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL) is projected to achieve a substantial volumetric growth of 39% year-over-year for the same period. In contrast, Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is anticipated to face challenges on a year-over-year basis, though it is expected to show sequential improvement.

The fertilizer market landscape continues to be dominated by FFC and FFBL, which are forecasted to command a combined market share of 50% for urea and 61% for DAP during the first 11 months of 2024. EFERT, on the other hand, is likely to experience a reduction in its urea market share to 30%, a decline of 5 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to factors such as plant turnaround and pricing disparities.