Karachi, April 11, 2022 (PPI-OT): Pakistan Strategy: Opposition finally manages to unseat PM

In a long drawn-out struggle, the now former Prime Minister Imran Khan, finally lost the no confidence vote in the National Assembly over the weekend. The united opposition has nominated PML-N’s Shehbaz Shareef to replace the former PM (election due today) and form a coalition government.

Mr. Shehbaz Shareef, over the years, has forged a solid reputation of a capable administrator and brings with him a successful track record of running country’s largest province, Punjab, where he held office as chief minister multiple times under PML-N’s regime.

Given that PML-N only has ~84 seats (25%) in the center, the new PM will have to lean on his allies for policy making, however, given their historic differences, appeasing a large number of allied parties will likely be challenging. It remains to be seen if the new government will see out its term or early elections will be held.

We expect an un-easy alliance between the united opposition will continue where the focus will remain on not giving PTI a head start in the next general elections. For their part, PTI is contemplating en-masse resignations from the assembly and is currently organizing mass demonstrations throughout the country.

The economy requires unpopular measures, beyond simply resuming the IMF program, which may erode support for incumbents. With elections due within next year and a half and annual budget just around the corner, we may see a pro-growth budget with fiscal prudence taking a back seat once again.