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AKD Securities Limited – AKD Daily (August 24, 2022)

Karachi, August 24, 2022 (PPI-OT): Pakistan Power: The rain brings its gifts

PPA-G released its Energy Purchase Data for the month of July. Power generation has increased in July, with 14,151GWh being generated, up 2%MoM compared to 13,876GWh generated in June, while decreasing 10%YoY from 15,679GWh.

By source, power generation from Hydel power plants was up 48%MoM and 6%YoY, while nuclear plants picked up the pace after maintenance, generating 59% more than the previous month, while also up 21%YoY. Due to elevated fuel costs for RLNG and coal, the country has reduced generation from these sources, while generation from RFO was also seen taking a dip (down 39.7%MoM, 45.6%YoY).

Average cost of generation for the month has dropped down by 27% to PkR10.7/kWh owing to the surge in generation from low-cost sources (Hydel and Nuclear), while the costlier sources (RLNG, RFO) have experienced lower dependency.

HUBC has seen a dip in utilization, with 34% less power purchased compared to June and down 31%YoY, while KAPCO’s generation has decreased by 50%MoM/62%YoY. NCPL’s power generation has dipped 39%MoM/32%YoY, while NPL has surprisingly seen increased utilization in the month given that it also operates on RFO, up 6%MoM and 27%YoY.

Going forward, we can expect the IPPs dependent on fossil fuels to maintain their decreased levels of generation, as dependence on other low-cost fuel sources will remain elevated for August.