Karachi: Urea sales in Pakistan for September 2025 are anticipated to rise by 17% compared to the same month last year, reaching 428,000 tons, according to a recent report. This increase is attributed to a low base effect, despite a 48% decline from August 2025, which saw pre-buying driven by discounts from select manufacturers.

The nine-month urea offtake for 2025 is projected to be 4.20 million tons, marking an 8% decrease from the same period in 2024. The decline is attributed to weaker farm economics. The closing inventory of urea at the end of September is estimated to be 1.17 million tons, an increase from 1.03 million tons in August.

Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is expected to hold the largest inventory at 539,000 tons, followed by Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) with 292,000 tons, and FATIMA with 275,000 tons. EFERT’s urea sales for September 2025 are anticipated to increase by 85% year-over-year to 104,000 tons, while FFC’s sales are expected to rise by 2% to 236,000 tons. Conversely, FATIMA is projected to experience a 27% decline in sales, totaling 50,000 tons for the month.

In contrast, diammonium phosphate (DAP) sales in September 2025 are expected to fall by 47% year-over-year and 48% month-over-month, reaching 71,000 tons. This decline is attributed to delays in the sowing season caused by flooding. For the nine-month period of 2025, DAP offtake is projected to be 769,000 tons, down 17% from the previous year.

Company-specific data indicates that FFC and EFERT are likely to record DAP sales of 61,000 tons and 3,000 tons, respectively, with other companies contributing an additional 7,000 tons in September. The closing inventory of DAP is expected to reach 378,000 tons, compared to 316,000 tons in August and 383,000 tons in September 2024.

Looking ahead, urea inventory levels are expected to remain high due to recent flooding, with projections indicating a closing inventory of over 1.4 million tons by December 2025.