Karachi: Pakistan's urea sales in September 2026 are projected to experience a significant year-on-year increase of 43%, reaching 611,000 tons, despite a monthly decline of 13%. According to JS Global, the overall urea sales for the first nine months of 2026 are likely to show a 5% rise, amounting to 4.4 million tons. This surge is attributed to a low base effect and enhanced crop activity that has heightened urea demand.

The industry’s urea inventory is anticipated to fall to a nine-month low, estimated at 650,000 tons in September 2026, down from 750,000 tons in August 2026. Among the key players, Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) holds the largest inventory at 519,000 tons, followed by Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) with 88,000 tons, and Fatima Group (FATIMA) with 29,000 tons. EFERT and FATIMA are expected to see a more than double increase in their urea sales year-on-year, while FFC anticipates a 10% rise.

In the broader view for the first nine months of 2026, FFC and FATIMA are likely to report year-on-year sales increases of 11% and 10%, respectively. In contrast, EFERT is expected to register a 2% decline. Meanwhile, diammonium phosphate (DAP) sales are predicted to drop by 39% year-on-year and 50% month-on-month in September 2026, resulting in a total of 59,000 tons sold. The cumulative DAP sales for the period are expected to be 756,000 tons, marking a 5% year-on-year decrease.

The data suggests that FFC and EFERT will record DAP sales of 34,000 tons and 15,000 tons, respectively, in September 2026. Their cumulative sales for the nine months are projected at 515,000 tons and 95,000 tons, respectively. The closing inventory of DAP for the month is expected to be around 259,000 tons. Looking ahead, a modest growth in urea sales is anticipated for the rest of the year, supported by improved crop prices.