Karachi: Pakistan's local cement dispatches are projected to decrease by 1% year-on-year in October 2026, reaching a total of 3.95 million tons. This forecast is based on data from the first 18 days of the month, during which local cement sales were recorded at 2.1 million tons.

According to JS Global, local dispatches for the first 25 days of October 2026 reached 3.05 million tons. The year-on-year decline is mainly attributed to a 1% decrease in dispatches in the North region, influenced by political uncertainty in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) during the initial week of October and a slowdown in demand due to increased prices. Month-on-month, dispatches in the North are expected to rise by 6%, while those in the South are anticipated to fall by 5%.

Average daily domestic sales in the North remained steady at 100-106 thousand tons per day in the first two weeks of October 2026, before increasing to 117 thousand tons per day in the third week. In contrast, the South region reported average daily sales ranging from 18-20 thousand tons during the first 18 days of the month.

On the export front, cement dispatches are expected to decline by 3% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month, totaling 0.77 million tons in October 2026. Overall, Pakistan's total cement dispatches are predicted to be approximately 4.73 million tons for the month, marking a 1% year-on-year decrease but a 2% month-on-month increase.

For the first four months of fiscal year 2027, total cement dispatches are forecasted to increase by 2% year-on-year to 17.87 million tons, with local dispatches projected to rise by 5% to 14.80 million tons. Cement capacity utilization is expected to be at 56% in October 2026, compared to 57% in October 2025 and 54% in September 2026.

The average retail price of cement rose by 15% year-on-year to 1,604 Pakistani rupees per bag in October 2026, up from 1,404 rupees per bag in October 2025, primarily due to higher fuel and transportation costs, as per the weekly Sensitive Price Indicator data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Month-on-month, prices increased by 2-4%. The domestic cement growth for fiscal year 2027 is expected to reach 8%.