KARACHI: Pakistan's cement industry is projected to witness a notable increase in local dispatches this October, driven by a post-monsoon revival in construction activities. According to provisional data for the first 19 days of the month, local cement dispatches are anticipated to rise by 8-11% month-on-month, reaching approximately 3.79 million tons. Year-on-year, the growth is expected to be around 11%.

In the North region, the average domestic sales in the first week stood at 120,000 tons per day. However, sales dipped to 97,000 tons per day in the second week due to political disruptions and ongoing protests by the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP). The situation improved in the third week, with sales rebounding to 120,000 tons per day. For the final week, analysts have assumed an average of 118,000 tons per day.

In the South region, average sales have been consistent, ranging between 15,000 and 18,000 tons per day over the first three weeks. Analysts project an average of 18,000 tons per day for the remaining week.

The month-on-month increase in dispatches is attributed to a seasonal recovery, as construction activities resume following the easing of flood-related disruptions. The year-on-year growth is credited to a rise in housing and construction activities, coupled with a low base effect in the South region.

Overall, the average daily domestic sales for the cement sector are expected to reach 122,000 tons per day in October 2025, up from 109,000 tons per day in the same period last year.

On the export front, cement sales are forecasted to increase by 12% month-on-month, though they are expected to drop by 13% year-on-year. Total cement sales for October 2025 are anticipated to be around 4.73 million tons, marking a 3-5% year-on-year increase and a 9-11% month-on-month rise.

Local cement capacity utilization is projected to rise to 54% in October 2025, compared to 48% in the previous year. For the first four months of fiscal year 2026, total cement sales are expected to see a 12-13% year-on-year increase, driven by a 12-14% rise in local dispatches and an 8-9% growth in exports.

Retail prices in October 2025 experienced a 7% year-on-year decline in the North, while prices in the South increased by 2% month-on-month, as reported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.