Islamabad: Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to decrease to 10.0% year-on-year for September 2026, down from 11.2% in August, amid fluctuating sectoral inflation rates. Transport inflation is anticipated to rise significantly, while housing costs will also see an increase. However, these are expected to be partially balanced by a reduction in food inflation.

According to JS Global, the expected CPI figures reflect ongoing economic challenges exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and disruptions in critical energy trade routes. These global uncertainties could potentially lead the State Bank of Pakistan to adopt a tighter monetary policy stance in the coming month. In a scenario where tensions in the Middle East persist, the average inflation rate for the fiscal year 2027 could escalate to approximately 9.8%, deviating from the base projection of 8.4%.