Karachi: Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to reach 9.4% year-on-year for October 2026, influenced by a high base and reduced food inflation of 5.9% year-on-year. However, the inflationary pressures from the transport and housing sectors remain significant, registering at 29.7% and 12.8% year-on-year, respectively.

According to JS Global, renewed geopolitical tensions and disruptions to key energy trade routes have heightened global uncertainty, affecting inflation forecasts. In response, the Monetary Policy Committee raised the policy rate by 50 basis points to 12% during its October 2026 meeting. Nine out of ten members voted for the increase, with one member advocating for a larger hike due to the deteriorating inflation outlook amid ongoing Middle East conflict.

JS Global also noted that if tensions in the Middle East persist, the average inflation for the fiscal year 2027 could rise to approximately 9.8%, compared to the previous estimate of 8.4%.