Islamabad: Pakistan's economic growth reached a four-year high, with the GDP expanding by 3.65% for the fiscal year 2026, according to new data from the National Accounts Committee (NAC). This growth, however, fell slightly short of the State Bank of Pakistan's predicted range of 3.75% to 4.75% and the government's revised projection of 3.7%.

According to JS Global, the NAC's estimates for the fourth quarter of FY26 indicated a year-on-year GDP growth of 2.0%, marking a six-quarter low. This was significantly lower than the average growth of 4.21% over the previous three quarters, largely due to a 4.7% contraction in the industrial segment. Despite a 3% growth in manufacturing activities, the electricity, water, and gas (EWG) sector experienced a sharp decline of 33% due to the previous year's high base effect, where it posted a 123% growth.

The agriculture sector contributed positively, growing by 3.5% for FY26. This was supported by a 1.59% growth in important crops and a 4.3% increase in other crops. In the fourth quarter specifically, agriculture grew by 3.7%, driven by a 15% rise in forestry and modest gains in both important and other crops.

The industrial sector recorded a growth of 3.34% for FY26, with overall manufacturing activities, including small, large, and slaughtering segments, growing by 6%. The construction sector also saw a 6.3% increase. However, the EWG segment's contraction of 10.2% on an annual basis reflected the ongoing challenges within the industry.

The services sector achieved a notable growth of 3.8%, the highest in four years, primarily due to a 9.5% expansion in the information and communication sector and a 5.7% rise in public administration and social security. In the fourth quarter, information technology led with a 15% increase, followed by a 6.1% growth in human health and social work activities.

Looking ahead to FY27, economic growth is expected to range between 3.5% and 4.0%, with agriculture projected to grow by 4-4.5%, industry by 3.5-4.0%, and services by 3.5-4.0%.