Karachi: Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2026 is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 9.0% to 9.5%, a reduction from the 10.26% recorded in September 2026, according to a recent press release. This projection also represents a rise from the 6.25% recorded in October 2025.

According to JS Global, on a month-on-month basis, inflation is forecasted to rise by 0.87%, primarily driven by increases in the transport and food segments. The transport segment is set to increase by 1.63%, influenced by a 2.9% rise in fuel prices. While prices for Motor Spirit are expected to increase by approximately 3.5%, High-Speed Diesel prices are anticipated to decline by 1.3%.

The food segment is projected to see a 1.05% rise, driven by higher prices of chicken, pulse gram, wheat, and wheat flour. These increases are partially offset by declining prices of tomatoes, potatoes, and fresh vegetables. The Housing, Water, and Electricity segment also anticipates a 0.80% increase, with electricity prices showing a decline due to a high base effect from the previous month, despite rising Liquefied Petroleum Gas prices and marginally higher rental costs.

The adjustments in electricity charges are linked to changes in the Fuel Charges Adjustment and the Quarterly Tariff Adjustment. With inflation expectations for October 2026 at 9.0%-9.5%, real rates are projected to align with Pakistan's historical average. Looking forward, average inflation is expected to exceed 9% in the fiscal year 2027 if current oil prices persist.