Karachi: Pakistan's urea sales are projected to reach 487,000 tons in October 2026, marking a 39% increase compared to the same month last year, and bringing the total sales for the first ten months of 2026 to 4.9 million tons, reflecting a 7% year-on-year rise. However, the month-on-month comparison shows a 20% decline, attributed primarily to seasonal factors and the absence of advance purchasing by dealers.

According to JS Global, industry-wide urea inventory levels are anticipated to be approximately 724,000 tons by the end of October, an increase from 650,000 tons in September 2026. Engro Fertilizers holds the largest share of this inventory with 571,000 tons, followed by Fauji Fertilizer Company at 87,000 tons, and Fatima Group at 57,000 tons. Despite the overall year-on-year growth, individual companies are expected to experience a decline in monthly sales due to the seasonal nature of demand and lack of dealer incentives.

Fauji Fertilizer Company, Fatima Group, and Engro Fertilizers are expected to report year-on-year increases in their October urea sales by 55%, 30%, and 13% respectively, while their month-on-month figures are predicted to decline. For the ten-month period, FFC and Fatima Group are set to see annual sales increases of 14% and 11%, while Engro Fertilizers is likely to report a 1% decrease.

In contrast, sales of Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) are expected to fall by 24% year-on-year in October 2026, despite a significant month-on-month surge. This brings the total DAP sales for the year to date to 937,000 tons, an 8% decrease from the previous year. Company-specific data indicates that FFC's October DAP sales are projected to drop by 14% year-on-year, while EFERT's are expected to more than double.

Looking ahead, the outlook for urea sales remains positive, supported by peak-season demand and increased agricultural activity. The consistent year-on-year growth in cumulative sales through October 2026 underscores the robust demand, even in the absence of manufacturer discounts.