Karachi, December 20, 2022 (PPI-OT): Power generation falls in Nov-2022

Total Power generation for Nov-2022 was recorded at 8,367GWh reflecting a 1% decline on a YoY basis and 22% lower on a sequential basis owing to lower industrial demand. Incorporating the latest numbers, the total generation for 5MFY23 lands at 60,153GWh, nearly 8% lower than what was seen during the same period last year.

The share of Furnace Oil (FO) saw a noticeable change decreasing from 9% during 5MFY22 to 5% in 5MFY23. On the flip side, the share of Nuclear and Hydel in the mix increased by 6ppt and 2ppt YoY, respectively.

FCA adjustment for Nov-2022 reduces sequentially over generation from cheaper sources such as Hydel and Nuclear, replacing expensive sources such as FO and RLNG.

Total generation declines in Nov-2022 (-1% YoY, -22% MoM)

National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) reported a total of 8,367GWh of power generated for Nov-2022 reflecting a decline of 1% YoY. Hydel continued to gain its share in the energy mix and contributed 2,484 GWh (30% of the mix) in last month’s overall electricity production, effectively making it the single most popular source. This was followed by Nuclear generation with 2,338 GWh (28%) of power produced. It must be noted that in Nov-2022 FO generation was only 0.1% of the total energy mix.

Gas and RLNG contributed a total of 2,181GWh last month (~13% each). On a sequential basis, total power generation declined by 22% MoM. This was largely driven by a 45% MoM decline in RLNG based production and a 41% MoM decline in Coal based generation. Total generation for 5MFY23 decreased by 8% YoY to 60,153GWh.

FO disappears in Nov-2022; down 92% YoY

As per the latest data, FO represented only 0.1% of the energy mix for Nov-2022 with a production of 11GWh, down 92% YoY. To note Nov-2022 was the lowest for FO based production, cumulatively in 5MFY23, energy generation from FO was down 44% YoY.

Move to cheaper fuel sources helped contain power costs

Average fuel cost during Nov-2022 declines by 33% MoM to Rs6.27/KWh over increase in power generation through hydel and Nuclear sources. With no High-Speed Diesel (HSD) based production, FO was the most expensive fuel source at Rs24.18/KWh but no meaningful production from the source helped contain overall power generation cost. The industry saw higher fuel costs in the SPLY due to lower generation from the Nuclear source and shortage of LNG, the shortage was then met through expensive sources like FO.

At Rs12.8/KWh, generation from coal was 27% lower MoM in the latest numbers while Gas-based generation costs similar to the preceding month. During 5MFY22 the cost of power production averaged at Rs9.4/KWh (up 20% YoY).