Karachi: The cement sector in Pakistan is anticipated to witness significant quarter-on-quarter earnings growth in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, primarily fueled by margin expansion following substantial hikes in maximum retail prices. These price increases are expected to counterbalance the rising costs of coal, according to a recent report.

According to JS Global, Cherat Cement Ltd (CHCC) is projected to report earnings of Rs9.95 per share in 4QFY26, marking a 5% increase year-on-year and a 37% rise quarter-on-quarter. However, net sales are expected to reflect a 6% year-on-year decline, attributed to the absence of export dispatches due to the closure of the Afghan border. Meanwhile, Kohat Cement Ltd (KOHC) is forecasted to report earnings of Rs2.64 per share in the same period, with a 3% increase year-on-year and a 30% rise quarter-on-quarter. This growth is expected to be driven by a 3% increase in offtakes and higher retention prices, alongside an 11% quarter-on-quarter rise in dispatches.

Despite the positive quarter-on-quarter outlook, year-on-year profitability for the sector is expected to remain relatively flat. A 6.7% increase in domestic dispatches is anticipated to be counteracted by a 21.75% decline in export volumes, reflecting broader challenges faced by the industry in balancing domestic and international demand.