FLASHNEWS:

October CPI Projected at 6.5% Amid Sharp Disinflation Trend

Islamabad: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2024 is anticipated to fall to 6.5%, marking the lowest level since January 2021 due to a high base effect, as ongoing disinflationary pressures continue. This represents a slight month-on-month (MoM) increase of 59 basis points and brings the average CPI for the first four months of fiscal year 2025 (4MFY25) down to 8.5%, a significant reduction from 28.4% recorded in the same period last year.

According to JS Global, food inflation is expected to show a YoY deflation of 0.58% in October 2024, with a MoM increase of 65 basis points, again driven by the high base effect. Core inflation is also projected to reach 10.6% for the month—a 32-month low—reflecting a MoM uptick of 54 basis points.

Projections for fiscal year 2025 (FY25) estimate an average CPI of around 8%. If Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) impacts are excluded and milk prices are adjusted to a normalized rate rather than the approximately 35% increase currently factored in, the FY25 average CPI could potentially drop further to 6.5%.