Karachi: The State Bank of Pakistan's upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting on June 15, 2026, is drawing mixed expectations from financial analysts and market participants regarding potential adjustments to the interest rate. Despite previous hikes, opinions remain divided with an equal split among those forecasting either a status quo or an increase.

According to a press release from JS Global, the previous Monetary Policy Committee meeting on April 27, 2026, resulted in a 100 basis point increase, largely anticipated due to tensions between the United States and Iran. A recent poll by Topline Securities now indicates that 49% of respondents expect the interest rate to remain unchanged, while another 49% predict an increase, with a minority anticipating a decrease.

The uncertainty in rate expectations is attributed to fluctuating oil prices, underpinned by geopolitical factors and diplomatic efforts involving Pakistan. President Trump's commitments to resolving regional conflicts have kept oil prices stable, currently trading at approximately $93 per barrel, down from a high of $118 in late April.

Secondary market yields, reflecting a potential 50-75 basis point hike, suggest a moderate increase in interest rates. The poll also explores long-term expectations, revealing divided opinions on inflation and currency exchange rates, yet indicating a generally stable economic outlook for Pakistan.