Karachi: Pakistan is on track to meet nearly all of the Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPC) set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its upcoming review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The IMF's fourth review of the EFF and third review of the RSF are scheduled for September 2026, and will assess Pakistan's economic performance against targets set for March and June 2026.

According to JS Global, Pakistan is expected to satisfy the majority of the seven QPCs, although data for one indicator remains unavailable. Projections suggest that the nation's Net International Reserves (NIR) will remain above the benchmark floor for both March and June 2026, while the Net Domestic Assets (NDA) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) are anticipated to stay well within the ceiling targets for the same periods.

The review will also take into account Pakistan's Foreign Currency Swaps, which are projected to remain under the ceiling targets for March and June 2026. Additionally, primary surplus figures are set to exceed ceiling targets, and government guarantees are likely to be maintained below the prescribed limits, providing sufficient space to meet future targets.

Furthermore, the targeted cash transfer program, known as the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP), is expected to surpass the floor recommended by the IMF for the fiscal year 2026. However, data on new tax returns for March and June 2026 has not yet been made public. The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) tax revenues, an indicative criterion, fell short by Rs336 billion, though it is believed that a portion of this shortfall could be offset by a pending Super Tax verdict.

Despite these challenges, the outlook for the September 2026 review remains positive. Pakistan's adherence to the QPCs suggests a smooth conclusion to the review, with any indicative criteria and structural benchmarks likely to be rolled over or reset.