Karachi: Pakistan's petroleum industry experienced a 3% year-on-year decline in offtakes for August 2026, totaling 1.26 million tons, due in part to a transporter strike. This also represented a 16% decrease from the previous month. However, the first two months of the fiscal year 2027 showed a 10% increase in volumes compared to the same period last year, suggesting a longer-term positive trend.

According to AKD Securities Limited, during this period, sales of Motor Spirit (MS) and High-Speed Diesel (HSD) saw moderation, while sales of Residual Fuel Oil (RFO) surged. The increase in RFO sales was attributed to disruptions in the supply of Re-gasified Liquefied Natural Gas (RLNG), which led the power sector to rely more heavily on RFO. Pakistan State Oil (PSO) achieved a market share of 45.2% over the first two months of fiscal year 2026, marking its highest share since fiscal year 2023. This growth was driven by changes in the HSD import policy and ongoing retail expansion efforts.

AKD Securities Limited forecasts a 5% year-on-year growth in industry volumes for fiscal year 2027, owing to a low base in fiscal year 2026 and expected fuel price reductions stemming from the normalization of global oil prices. These factors are anticipated to aid in the recovery of freight, agriculture, and consumer mobility sectors. The firm maintains a 'BUY' recommendation for PSO and Attock Petroleum Limited (APL), with target prices set at PKR 900 and PKR 760 per share, respectively, by December 2026.