Karachi: Pakistan's urea sales in May 2026 are forecasted to remain stable year-on-year with a volume of 419,000 tons, despite a 10 percent decrease month-on-month. According to JS Global, this monthly decline is attributed to the conclusion of initial purchasing for the Kharif season in April and a pause by dealers to clear existing stock following heavy pre-buying. The industry's urea inventory is expected to rise to 0.99 million tons in May, up from 0.83 million tons in April, with higher prices impacting farmer liquidity and causing delays in purchases.
Cumulatively, urea sales are projected to reach 1.9 million tons for the first five months of 2026, marking an 8 percent year-on-year increase. Engro Fertilizers leads in inventory with 637,000 tons, followed by Fatima Group with 221,000 tons, and Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) with 113,000 tons. On a year-on-year basis, FFC and Fatima Group's sales are expected to rise by 24 percent and 3.4 times, reaching 257,000 tons and 87,000 tons respectively, while Engro Fertilizers is likely to see a 70 percent decline to 43,000 tons for the month. In the first five months of 2026, FFC and Fatima Group are anticipated to report 29 percent and 51 percent year-on-year growth, while Engro Fertilizers may record an 11 percent decline.
DAP sales in May are expected to decrease by 42 percent year-on-year and 34 percent month-on-month to approximately 55,000 tons, bringing the total for the first five months of 2026 to 442,000 tons, a 30 percent year-on-year increase. Local DAP prices have surpassed Rs15,000 per bag, in line with international market volatility. FFC and Engro Fertilizers are estimated to record DAP sales of 38,000 tons and 7,000 tons in May, with closing inventory projected at 225,000 tons.
Looking ahead, urea sales are expected to remain stable throughout 2026, aligning with agricultural demand. Most plants operating on RLNG have resumed operations after previous closures due to RLNG shortages. However, potential price increases linked to global uncertainties remain a risk.