Karachi, December 12, 2022 (PPI-OT): Pakistan Steel: Steel recovers amid Chinese re-emergence

International scrap prices have shown major weakness since peaking in mid-April’22, declining by 39% since then, to currently hover around ~US$385/ton compared to FYTD/ CYTD avg. of US$373/447/ton

CRC-HRC spreads have long contracted from their super-cycle highs of US$145/ton, down 58% from the said peaks, now currently trading at US$61/ton

More specifically, Vietnamese hot rolled coil index saw price gains, with the last traded price standing at US$565/ton vs. of US$525/ton (up 8% vs. Nov’22 average)

Currently, average ex-mill CRC price (excluding sales tax) stands at PkR210k/ton, with galvanized prices maintaining their deltas of ~5%, standing at PkR225-235k/ton, respectively.

Overall, with the steel sector in a spot of bother, MUGHAL seems to be the best of the lot, with our Dec’23 TP of PkR75/sh, an upside of 36% from the previous close.