Karachi: The auto industry is poised to experience its first year-on-year monthly decline in sales for June 2026 after a 14-month streak of growth. Sales for the month are projected to fall by 4% compared to the previous year, totaling approximately 18,000 units. This anticipated decrease is largely attributed to significant volume drops from major players, Pak Suzuki and Indus Motor Company Ltd (INDU). Despite this decline, a month-on-month sales increase of 23% is expected, fueled by pre-budget purchasing trends.

According to JS Global, the fiscal year 2026 is forecasted to see a robust 36% year-on-year growth in the auto sector. This growth is expected to be broad-based across the three major assemblers, with Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR) leading with a projected 53% increase, followed by INDU and Pak Suzuki, both anticipated to rise by 34%. However, there are concerns about the impact of duty reductions on imported vehicles under the National Tariff Policy (NTP), which could challenge the local industry. Additionally, potential increases in sales tax on hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) could lead to price hikes of 10-15%, undermining the cost-saving advantages that have driven consumer interest in these models.