Islamabad: Pakistan is anticipated to see inflation drop into single-digit territory for the first time in three years by August 2024, even with a minor monthly uptick, signaling a possible shift towards more favorable economic conditions. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to fall to a 34-month low of 9.3%, driven by a significant base effect and despite a slight increase from the previous month.

According to JS Global, the favorable shift in inflation, expected to average at 9% for the fiscal year 2025, reflects a sharp decline from the 27.8% average recorded in the same period last year. This improvement comes despite a 10 basis point month-on-month increase in headline inflation. The period from May to August 2024 set a low base that might lead to a significant, albeit short-lived, rebound in inflation rates in the latter part of the fiscal year, with forecasts predicting a rise to around 12.5% in mid-2025, then stabilizing at 11% by October 2025.