Karachi: Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for September 2026 increased to 10.26% year-on-year, aligning closely with market forecasts. Monthly inflation rose by 1.27%, with significant contributions from the transport and utility sectors.

According to JS Global, the rise in the year-on-year inflation rate was mainly due to a 27.43% increase in transport costs, a 13.54% rise in the communication segment, and a 12.39% rise in housing, water, electricity, and gas costs. The transport segment saw a 5.75% month-on-month increase, largely attributed to higher average fuel prices resulting from increased international oil prices, with motor fuel prices rising by approximately 11%.

Food inflation registered a minor monthly increase of 0.19%, driven by a substantial 29% rise in onion prices, while a 25% decrease in tomato prices helped mitigate the overall impact. The housing, water, electricity, and gas category recorded a 3.05% month-on-month inflation rate, primarily due to a 15% increase in electricity charges and a 5% rise in LPG prices.

Electricity prices were affected by a higher Fuel Charges Adjustment of Rs2.0581/kWh, alongside a positive Quarterly Tariff Adjustment of Rs0.5194/kWh. Core inflation for September 2026 was recorded at 8.6% year-on-year, a slight decrease from August 2026's 8.8%, but higher than September 2025's 7.0%. The real rate in July 2026, with September's inflation considered, stood at 1.2%, below Pakistan's historical average of 200-300 basis points. JS Global maintains its fiscal year 2027 inflation forecast at a range of 8.5-9.0%.