Karachi: In a move aimed at providing relief to consumers, Pakistan's federal cabinet has approved a revised petrol pricing mechanism for the next 30 days. The new policy dictates that import parity will align with the import cost of Pakistan State Oil (PSO) cargo, with refineries receiving an ex-refinery price estimate based on rates from March 7, 2026, before the onset of the war. Refineries will be required to surrender the price difference under the petroleum levy, effectively reducing the petrol price for consumers by a cut of PkR14.7 per liter in petroleum levy. Additionally, refineries are mandated to submit daily motor spirit (MS) sales reports to both the Petroleum Division and the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA).

According to AKD Securities Limited, the impact on the refinery sector is estimated to be around PkR16.4 billion in November 2026. This estimate assumes an absorption of approximately PkR49.7 per liter on an expected 329 million liters of refinery MS sales, equating to 243,600 tons based on September 2026 figures. Among listed companies, Attock Refinery Limited (ATRL) is anticipated to face the most substantial impact of PkR2.2 billion, followed by National Refinery Limited (NRL) at PkR1.2 billion, Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL) at PkR1.1 billion, and Cnergyico at PkR1.0 billion.

The investment perspective highlights that while the PkR14.7 per liter reduction in petroleum levy is expected to decrease petrol prices and potentially ease the Consumer Price Index (CPI), refineries' MS margins are projected to remain negative throughout the month. After accounting for customs duty and the PkR49.7 per liter surrender, the effective ex-refinery MS price is expected to drop to PkR207.1 per liter, resulting in an estimated local petrol margin of negative US$5.0 per barrel.